On March 8, addresses linked to the United States government moved 49,000 Bitcoin seized from the Silk Highway, price $1 billion. The switch was accompanied by Bitcoin’s (BTC) value slipping beneath $22,000 and a noticeable spike in a key holder metric.

However does this imply that merchants ought to brace for potential BTC value volatility forward?


Bitcoin’s CDD metric out of the blue spikes

The BTC switch doubtless brought on a major spike in Glassnode’s coin days destroyed (CDD) metric. It measures the weighted motion of Bitcoin primarily based on the time it was final moved from an handle.

The CDD is calculated by multiplying the quantity of Bitcoin transferred by the variety of days since BTC was final added to an handle.

A spike within the CDD indicator often precedes value volatility, with the bears sometimes having a slight benefit. Some long-term traders, nonetheless, might also transfer Bitcoin to leverage it for extra upside good points on the futures market.

Bitcoin coin days destroyed. Supply: Glassnode

Bitcoin on-chain information reveals no main sell-off indicators

However the present CDD spike to a two-month excessive doesn’t essentially counsel {that a} $1,000 to $1,500 value transfer is brewing.

As an illustration, the alternate influx information reveals no vital spikes but. As a substitute, round 5,000 BTC (price round $100 million) was moved out of exchanges within the final 24 hours. 

The netflow quantity of BTC to/from exchanges. Supply: Glassnode

Due to this fact, the $215 million switch to Coinbase has had little value impression thus far. Nevertheless, with solely round 20% transferring to an alternate out of 49,000 BTC, the danger of elevated promoting stress stays.

BTC/USD every day value chart. Supply: TradingView

Presently, the BTC/USD pair is buying and selling above help between $21,500 and $21,950, which is encouraging for consumers regardless of a slew of negative news this week. Additional affirmation will arrive with consecutive every day closes above this help space.

This text doesn’t comprise funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.